Sherrod Brown Prediction Markets & 2026 Ohio Senate Odds

Sherrod Brown and the Ohio Senate market

The Ohio Senate market page covers the special election for the unexpired term that ends January 3, 2029, and both venues write it on a party. Kalshi's Democratic contract pays Yes if a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a senator from Ohio pursuant to the Class III special election held on November 3, 2026; Kalshi lists an expected settlement of December 16, 2026 and allows accelerated determination once media organizations agree on a projection. Polymarket waits for the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC to call the race for the same candidate, or for certification if they do not, and its rule replaces a nominee who leaves the race.

Brown is the Democratic nominee, which makes the Democratic contract his side, though neither venue's rule names him. Closing prices and each venue's own volume are on the Senate market page.

Candidacy and ballot status

Brown does not hold office. The U.S. Senate's list of senators names Jon Husted and Bernie Moreno for Ohio, and every position Wikidata records for Brown carries an end date. His last ran from January 3, 2007 to January 3, 2025, in the seat now held by Moreno. Before that he represented Ohio's 13th congressional district in the U.S. House from 1993 to 2007, was Ohio Secretary of State from 1983 to 1991, and sat in the Ohio House of Representatives from 1975 to 1983. The Senate's own Ohio timeline records that he chaired the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs from February 3, 2021 until January 3, 2025.

The 2026 race is for the other seat. Husted, a Republican, has held it since January 21, 2025, after his appointment to replace JD Vance. Brown won the Democratic primary over Ron Kincaid, 712,106 votes to 84,405 in the official canvass, and the November ballot list Lake County published on October 15, 2026 named four candidates: Brown for the Democrats, Husted for the Republicans, William B. Redpath for the Libertarians and Greg Levy under an other-party label, with three write-ins.

What has moved the market

The polls ran Brown's way from late summer without ever running far. A Siena College poll for The New York Times taken June 15 to 28, 2026 had Husted ahead 50 to 47; Siena's next poll, September 22 to October 1, had Brown ahead 49 to 46. Marist's poll of October 15 to 18 had him four points up among likely voters, and Suffolk's October 21 to 26 poll had him ahead 47 to 44, unchanged from September, which the Suffolk poll story found the market had already absorbed.

The vote settled the question in unofficial results. NPR reported at 11:10 p.m. on November 3, 2026 that Brown had defeated Husted according to a race call by the Associated Press, and NBC News also projected him the winner. The Secretary of State's unofficial count, read at 9:52 a.m. Eastern on November 5, 2026 with every Election Day precinct in, gave Brown 2,301,042 votes to Husted's 2,077,748, a margin of 223,294, or just under five points; the story on Brown's win sets that against the price going in.

What happens next

Certification comes after the county canvass, which the Secretary of State completes about three weeks after the election; on November 5 it listed 98,369 provisional and 3,779 overseas and military ballots outstanding statewide. An automatic statewide recount needs a margin under one-fourth of one percent of the vote, well inside the unofficial gap. Kalshi's contract did not wait for the count or the swearing-in: it settled on its media-consensus clause at 11:44 p.m. Eastern on November 3, 2026. The seat itself changes hands at the swearing-in, and until then the Senate's list of senators still names Husted in it.

The governor's race and the House seats sit on the elections page, and the people pages index the other Ohioans a contract names. Next review: November 19, 2026.