Ohio Elections Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Who won Ohio's 2026 governor and Senate races, and its House seats, as prediction markets priced them: the November 3 contests set out like the ballot, beside the count that decides them.
Key races
12 racesAll politics →| Race | Leading | Kalshi | Polymarket | Move | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide 2 races | |||||
| GovernorSettled | Democratic Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 17 points over 7d | |
| SenateSettled | Democratic Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 30 points over 7d | |
| U.S. House 10 races | |||||
| 1st DistrictSettled | Democratic Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 4 points over 7d | |
| 5th DistrictSettled | Republican Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 3 points over 7d | |
| 6th DistrictSettled | Republican Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 2 points over 7d | |
| 7th DistrictSettled | Democratic Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 13 points over 7d | |
| 8th DistrictSettled | Republican Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 6 points over 7d | |
| 9th DistrictSettled | Democratic Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 19 points over 7d | |
| 10th DistrictSettled | Democratic Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 69 points over 7d | |
| 13th DistrictSettled | Democratic Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 2 points over 7d | |
| 14th DistrictSettled | Republican Party | 100%— | 100%— | — | |
| 15th DistrictSettled | Democratic Party | 100%— | 100%— | up 62 points over 7d | |
People
All people →| Portrait | Person | Named in | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | Amy ActonNo office on record | Ohio Senate Odds 2026 — settled · Democratic Party settled yes · 1 more · 8 stories | No date on record |
| SB | Sherrod BrownNo office on record | Ohio Senate Odds 2026 — settled · Democratic Party settled yes · 3 more · 8 stories | No date on record |
Top stories
All Ohio news →
Local newsActon's win settles an Ohio governor board that had made her a five-in-six favorite
Photo: Myselfsour2724 / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Local newsOhio Democrats flip three House seats, two of them the markets had priced for Republicans
Photo: Architect of the Capitol / Wikimedia Commons, public domain
Local newsBrown takes back an Ohio Senate seat on a board that kept Husted a live underdog to the end
Photo: Office of Senator Sherrod Brown / Wikimedia Commons, public domain
Top Ohio Election Markets
This page sets out Ohio's November 3, 2026 contests in the shape of the ballot rather than by trading: the two statewide races first, then the U.S. House seats by district number. The statewide pair is the governor's race, in which each party's candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run as one ticket, and the Senate special election for the term ending January 3, 2029. The House seats run from the 1st to the 15th, and the districts with written pages are the 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 13th, 14th and 15th, each a row in district order. Every row shows both parties' contracts as the exchanges quote them, so a party ahead here is ahead in price, not in votes. The candidates behind those contracts are gathered, with their offices and ballot lines, in the people index.
What Moves Ohio Election Markets
Ohio's voting calendar, set by the Secretary of State, was the spine of the campaign: registration closed October 5, early in-person voting and voting by mail began October 6, and on November 3 the polls were open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. What moves the contracts now is the count. The Associated Press called the governor's race for Amy Acton and the Senate special election for Sherrod Brown on election night, and the Secretary of State's results stay unofficial until the county boards finish the official canvass, which it says takes about three weeks. Ballots from military and overseas voters still count if they arrive by November 7, one reason the Associated Press did not call the 10th District for Kristina Knickerbocker until the afternoon of November 5, 2026.
Why Ohio Election Prediction Markets
A poll samples voters once; a contract is priced continuously by people paying to be right, and each row here shows both parties' prices side by side. What a contract pays on is fixed before it trades, and the Ohio contracts do not all wait for the same moment. Kalshi's pay on the party of the person sworn in, which its rules expect by December 16, 2026 for the Senate special election and January 4, 2027 for the House seats, or inaugurated, January 14, 2027 for governor, and may settle earlier once media organizations agree on the winner. Polymarket's statewide contracts settle when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race, or on the official certification, and its House contracts on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results as the fallback.
Questions readers ask
How do election prediction markets work?
An election contract pays a fixed amount if one party wins a named race and nothing if it does not, so the price traders pay reads as the probability they assign to that party. On Ohio's November 3, 2026 races, Kalshi and Polymarket each quoted both parties, and a race's page shows each exchange's figure under its own name.
What was on the Ohio ballot on November 3, 2026?
Statewide, the governor and lieutenant governor, elected together as one ticket, and the Senate seat in a special election for the term ending January 3, 2029; then Ohio's fifteen U.S. House seats, on a congressional map first used in 2026. State Issue 3, the photo ID amendment whose ballot language the Ohio Ballot Board approved in August, and local questions were on the ballot too.
When do Ohio election contracts settle?
Not all at once. Kalshi pays on the party of the person sworn in, expected by December 16, 2026 for the Senate special election, January 4, 2027 for the House contracts and January 14, 2027 for governor, though it can settle earlier on a media consensus; Polymarket settles its statewide contracts once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC agree, or on certification.
Who won Ohio's 2026 governor and Senate races?
Democrat Amy Acton won the governor's race and Democrat Sherrod Brown the Senate special election, according to Associated Press race calls on November 3, 2026. Both results are unofficial until the Ohio Secretary of State certifies the official canvass.
Are election prediction markets legal in Ohio?
The legal status page on Ohio Predictions reports, as of its own date, what Ohio law, the Ohio Casino Control Commission and the federal courts have said about prediction-market exchanges, and it draws no conclusion where they are silent. This page sets out the contracts and the calendar only; nothing on it is legal advice.