Ohio Democrats flip three House seats, two of them the markets had priced for Republicans

Ohio Democrats flipped two Republican-held U.S. House seats on Tuesday, November 3, according to Associated Press projections, and a third, the 10th, when the AP called it on the afternoon of November 5, 2026. Brian Poindexter defeated Rep. Max Miller in the 7th District and Don Leonard defeated Rep. Mike Carey in the 15th, and Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker defeated Rep. Mike Turner in the 10th, where she leads by 4,938 votes in the Ohio Secretary of State's unofficial count. On the unofficial results, Ohio's delegation goes from ten Republicans and five Democrats to eight Democrats and seven Republicans.

All five Democratic incumbents held their seats, the Ohio Capital Journal reported, and the seven Republican incumbents not named above won theirs. The figures here are the Secretary of State's unofficial results as read at 9:55 a.m. Eastern on November 5, 2026, with every precinct in every district reporting. Two of the three seats Democrats won are districts where the prediction markets had made the Republican the favorite on the eve of the election.

Ohio's 10th District, called two days later

The closest race in the delegation is the 10th, which in the Secretary of State's count takes in parts of Montgomery, Greene and Butler counties. The unofficial count gives Knickerbocker 149,024 votes to Turner's 144,086, with Libertarian Thomas F. McMasters at 8,906, a margin of 1.6 points of the vote. Decision Desk HQ projected her the winner on election night and she gave a victory speech, the Ohio Capital Journal reported; WHIO-TV reported on the morning of November 5, 2026 that the AP had still not called the race; the AP called it for Knickerbocker that afternoon, about 2:30 p.m. by WYSO's account, and Turner wished her "every success" in a statement, WHIO reported. Turner has represented the district since 2003. Knickerbocker is an Air Force veteran and oncology nurse practitioner, the Capital Journal reported. Kevin Sims, a political scientist at Cedarville University, told WHIO that a new member would start without the seniority that shapes committee assignments in Congress, and called the result one he "did not see coming."

The markets did not wait for the call. In the morning read on November 5, 2026, Kalshi had the Democratic side of the 10th District board at 100% and Polymarket at 98%, so Polymarket carried the best price while both boards were still open, which means traders treated the outcome as settled hours before the AP did. Kalshi settled its contracts at 3:41 p.m. Eastern that afternoon and Polymarket resolved its Democratic market Yes at 5:48 p.m. Two days earlier the price said the opposite. On the evening of November 2, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket both had the Republican side at 71%, and Polymarket had the Democratic side at 30%. A 30% price is roughly a one-in-three chance, which means Knickerbocker's win is an upset the market had priced as real but unlikely.

The count by county shows how the lead was built: Knickerbocker carried the Montgomery County part of the district by 19,058 votes, and Turner carried the Greene County part by 8,961 and the Butler County part by 5,159. The three county boards list 9,860 outstanding absentee and provisional ballots countywide on November 5, 2026, a figure that includes voters who live outside the district, against a margin of 4,938. Ohio orders an automatic recount in a district race only when the margin is under one-half of one percent of the vote; Knickerbocker's lead is a little over three times that line, so the canvass would have to narrow it to roughly 1,500 votes before one applies.

The 15th and the 7th, flips the market saw differently

The 15th District was the other upset. Leonard, who previously taught city and regional planning at Ohio State University, beat Carey 149,287 to 130,225, with Libertarian Brennan Barrington at 8,135, a margin of 19,062 votes. He won the district's Franklin County portion by 53,181 votes and lost each of its other six counties, Clark, Fayette, Highland, Madison, Miami and Pickaway. On the evening of November 2, 2026, Polymarket had Carey's side at 63%, and Kalshi and Polymarket both had Leonard's at 38%, which means the market rated the seat a lean Republican hold with a meaningful chance of exactly this result.

The 7th was a flip the market expected. Poindexter beat Miller 180,614 to 148,177, a margin of 32,437. Kalshi and Polymarket both had the Democratic side at 87% on November 2, 2026, which means the board had priced Miller's seat as likely lost before a vote was cast; the Capital Journal reported that Miller is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over allegations he denies, and that several prominent Republicans had called for his resignation over the summer.

The seats that held

Every Democratic incumbent the markets priced kept the seat by a wide margin. Marcy Kaptur won the 9th District 159,306 to 142,830 over Derek Merrin in a rematch, and Kalshi had her side at 81% on November 2, 2026, which means the closest Democratic hold on the board was also the one with the most doubt in its price. Greg Landsman won the 1st, 176,453 to 139,343, and Emilia Sykes the 13th, 190,593 to 122,078; Polymarket had the Democratic side at 95% in the 1st and 97% in the 13th on November 2, 2026. Joyce Beatty in the 3rd and Shontel Brown in the 11th also won.

On the Republican side, Warren Davidson held the 8th District 168,689 to 154,828, the narrowest Republican hold at 13,861 votes; Polymarket had his side at 93% on November 2, 2026, which means the market saw less risk there than the count did. Dave Joyce won the 14th, Bob Latta the 5th and Michael Rulli the 6th, each by double digits, and Dave Taylor, Jim Jordan and Troy Balderson won the 2nd, 4th and 12th.

What the House results mean for the markets

Across the ten Ohio House boards the site follows, the market's favorite on the eve of the election won eight and lost the 15th and the 10th. Those two exceptions were both Republican seats priced in the 60s and 70s, which means the board gave Democrats real but minority chances in exactly the places the national wave reached. Nationally, the AP called the House for Democrats early on November 4 after the party passed the 218-seat threshold, States Newsroom reported through the Ohio Capital Journal, which means Ohio's three Democratic gains land in the new majority rather than a minority. The district pages carry each board: the 10th District, the 15th District, the 7th District, the 9th District and the 8th District, with every race on the elections page.

What happens next

No Ohio House race is still uncalled, but every count is unofficial. The Secretary of State's results page lists 102,148 outstanding ballots statewide on November 5, 2026, 3,779 absentee ballots from military and overseas voters and 98,369 provisional ballots. Mailed ballots from military and overseas voters have until four days after Election Day to arrive, which runs through November 7, and the county boards rule on provisional ballots during the official canvass, which the Secretary of State says is completed about three weeks after the election. No certification date appears on its results page. Until then every figure here is unofficial, and certification is the next dated mark.

Update, November 6, 2026: this story was updated after the Associated Press called the 10th District for Kristina Knickerbocker on November 5 and Kalshi and Polymarket settled their 10th District boards.