Survey 160's final Ohio poll puts Acton up eight as the governor market climbs past its October high

Survey 160's final Ohio poll of the 2026 campaign, posted November 2, 2026, put Democrat Amy Acton ahead of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 51% to 43% in the governor's race, an eight-point lead wider than the ones Marist and Suffolk University found in October. The final Ohio governor poll arrived with the prediction markets already pricing an Acton win as the clear likelihood: on November 2, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket both had the Democratic side of the race at 83%, which means the venues and the last poll point the same way going into Tuesday.

Survey 160 fielded the poll from October 27 to November 1, 2026, drawing 1,174 completed interviews from the L2 file of registered Ohio voters, almost all of them by text message, and it reports a margin of error of 5.4 points after weighting. The governor's race is on every Ohio ballot on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, the general election date Wikidata and the county boards of elections give, and the Lake County Board of Elections candidate list names the three party tickets: Amy Acton and David Pepper for the Democrats, Vivek Ramaswamy and Robert A. McColley for the Republicans, and Don Kissick and James L. Mills for the Libertarians, with three write-in tickets filed.

What Survey 160 Found in the Governor's Race

Among all respondents, Acton led 51% to 43%, with 4% choosing someone else and 3% undecided. Among the likely voters Survey 160 identified from self-reported turnout and past vote history, the lead was 50% to 44% on the first question and 51% to 44% once leaners were pushed, so the eight-point headline narrows to six or seven points on the likely-voter screen. The same poll had Sherrod Brown ahead of Jon Husted 50% to 45% for the U.S. Senate with leaners, and Democrats ahead by five points on the generic ballot for the U.S. House.

The poll weighted its sample so that 20.9% of registered voters had already cast a ballot, a target Survey 160 says it drew from the Secretary of State's data and the United States Elections Project. That figure matters for reading the result: about a fifth of the electorate had voted before Election Day by the poll's own reckoning, and the rest of the vote is still to be cast on Tuesday.

Survey 160 attached one caveat to its Ohio numbers. Only 13 of the 1,174 interviews came from landlines, so weighting by phone type inflated the design effect to 3.63, larger than in any of the other three states it polled, which is why the Ohio margin of error, 5.4 points, is the widest in the release.

How the Governor Market Moved Into Election Day

The price has traveled further than the polls this month. On October 12, 2026, both venues had the Democratic side at 69%. By October 23, 2026, Kalshi had it at 82% and Polymarket at 83%, after a run of Acton leads. On October 29, 2026, the day after Suffolk University's narrower poll, the best Democratic price was 79% on Polymarket, with Kalshi at 81%. On November 2, 2026 both venues were at 83% for the Democratic side and 18% for the Republican side, so the market has more than recovered the late-October dip and sits a point above the best price of 82% it reached on Kalshi on October 23, 2026.

What the price is saying is that the venues treat a lead in the mid to high single digits, measured by several pollsters, as close to decisive. At 83%, the market gives Acton's party roughly a five-in-six chance, and the 18% on the Republican side leaves Ramaswamy's party about a one-in-six chance. Trading has been heavy into the final day: Kalshi had matched about 8.27 million contracts on the race by November 2, 2026, about 829,000 of them in the preceding 24 hours.

Where the Final Poll Sits Against the Others

Survey 160's lead is larger than either of the other two late October surveys from named pollsters. Marist's poll, taken October 15 to 18, 2026, had Acton ahead by seven points among likely voters. Suffolk University and the USA TODAY Network Ohio, polling October 21 to 26, 2026, had her ahead 48% to 44% among 500 likely voters, with a margin of error of 4.4 points, as the Suffolk story set out. Three polls, three Acton leads, of four, seven and eight points.

The market's movement tracks that spread. The dip to 79% followed the four-point Suffolk result, and the return to 83% leaves the price closer to what the seven- and eight-point polls describe than to what Suffolk found. A reader who wants to know which of the three the market believes has the answer in the number: it is pricing the wider leads.

The Case Against Reading the Final Poll as Settling It

The strongest case against the read is that Survey 160's own numbers are the least precise of the three. A margin of error of 5.4 points means an eight-point lead is consistent with a race as close as two or three points, and the poll's authors flagged the Ohio weighting themselves. On the likely-voter screen the lead is six or seven points, not eight, and Suffolk's four-point lead from the week before sits inside its own margin of error.

The other side of the case is in the market itself. An 18% price for the Republican side on November 2, 2026 is not a long shot; it is the probability of a one-in-six outcome, and both venues hold it there with Election Day a day away. Survey 160's own weighting counts 40.5% of Ohio's registered voters as 2024 Trump voters against 32.2% for Harris, so a polling miss that runs in the Republican direction is the specific risk a reader holding the other view would point to.

What Happens on Tuesday

Polls are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, according to the Franklin County and Cuyahoga County boards of elections. Early in-person voting ended on November 1. The Franklin County board notes that Ohio law now requires every absentee ballot to be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day to be counted, so a ballot still in the mail on Tuesday evening does not count.

Election night can settle the markets before the count is final. Kalshi's contract pays Yes on the Democratic side if a representative of the Democratic Party is inaugurated as governor of Ohio pursuant to the 2026 election, names the Ohio Secretary of State as its settlement source and lists an expected expiration of January 14, 2027, but its rules also make it eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. The Ohio governor market page explains how both venues settle, the Ohio Senate market page covers the Brown and Husted race on the same ballot, and the elections page carries every Ohio race the venues price.

The next dated beats follow in order. Polls close at 7:30 p.m. on November 3, 2026, and the first unofficial returns come after that; the Cuyahoga County board has scheduled its provisional ballot verification for a board meeting on November 16, 2026. The market keeps trading through all of it, and the Kalshi contract can settle as soon as a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, so until then a reader watching the board is watching a price, not a result.

Correction, November 6, 2026: an earlier version of this story said Kalshi's contract settles only after the inauguration. Its rules make it eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and Kalshi settled it on the night of November 3, 2026.