Ohio Economy Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Ohio economy prediction markets are contracts that settle on a figure published about Ohio, from the state's monthly tax receipts to its jobless rate. National releases with no Ohio line stay with Prediction Genius.
This board lists Ohio economy contracts as they qualify, starting with the daily AAA gasoline contract on the Ohio gas prices page. Each one's own page names the figure, the agency or publisher that releases it and the date it settles.
Top Ohio Economy Markets
Gasoline leads this board: Kalshi lists a daily contract on AAA's average price of a gallon of regular gasoline across Ohio, a ladder of prices that each ask whether the next day's figure lands above it, settled on AAA's own Ohio reading. The Ohio gas prices page carries that ladder and the settled figure for every day since the series began on September 2, 2026.
Other contracts join it when their answer is a number published about Ohio, such as a month's state tax receipts, a budget figure or the state's unemployment rate, and when Prediction Genius, the site's price supplier, files them under Ohio rather than under a national heading. That leaves out national releases with no Ohio line and questions that would read the same in any state. The figures best suited to a contract are the ones Ohio already publishes on a fixed schedule, described below, because a contract needs a release to settle on. The Ohio races and seasons are listed in the markets catalog, and the politics section and the sports section cover them by subject.
What Moves Ohio Economy Markets
Ohio's economic numbers arrive on a calendar, and a contract built on one moves when its release lands. The Office of Budget and Management publishes preliminary state revenue each month, General Revenue Fund tax receipts against the estimate, broken out by sales tax, personal income tax and the Commercial Activity Tax; September's figures came out on October 8, 2026, closing the first quarter of state fiscal year 2027, with the fuller Monthly Financial Report after them. The state's Bureau of Labor Market Information releases statewide unemployment figures monthly, with September 2026 due on October 16, 2026 and October on November 20, 2026, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics marks each newest month preliminary. Budgets run on a two-year cycle: the operating budget in odd-numbered years, the capital budget in even-numbered ones. AAA posts Ohio's gasoline average every day, and the state's motor fuel tax holiday, in effect from October 4, 2026 through January 2, 2027, puts a fixed date on the gas board as well.
Why Ohio Economy Prediction Markets
An economic contract asks whether a named figure lands above or below a stated line, and pays a fixed amount if it does; its price is read as the probability traders put on that outcome, and it moves as data and forecasts arrive rather than once a month. The contract's rules are the part to read first. They name the publisher, the series and which print counts, because Ohio's revenue figures are preliminary when released and a jobless rate can be revised after the fact. Where two exchanges quote one line, the figure shown is the lower Yes price, named with its exchange; nothing is averaged. The site reports what a market implies about Ohio and takes no side on the number or the venue.
Questions readers ask
How do economic prediction markets work?
A contract asks a yes-or-no question about a published number, for instance whether Ohio's unemployment rate for a given month comes in above a stated level, and pays a fixed amount if it does. The price of that payout is read as the implied probability, and the contract settles on the official release its rules name.
Which Ohio economic numbers can have prediction markets?
Figures published about Ohio on a schedule: AAA's daily Ohio gasoline average, which carries a daily contract, the Office of Budget and Management's monthly revenue figures and the two-year operating budget, and the statewide unemployment rate released monthly by Ohio's Bureau of Labor Market Information and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A national figure with no Ohio line does not qualify.
How do Ohio economy markets settle?
On the release the contract names, as published, never on a forecast or a news story. Kalshi's Ohio gas contract settles on AAA's Ohio average for regular gasoline on its named date; a contract on tax receipts points at the Office of Budget and Management and one on the jobless rate at the Bureau of Labor Statistics series LASST390000000000003.
When does Ohio release its monthly unemployment rate?
On a published schedule from Ohio's Bureau of Labor Market Information: September 2026 figures on Friday, October 16, 2026, October's on Friday, November 20, 2026, and November's on Friday, December 18, 2026, with county and metro figures the following Tuesday.
Are economic prediction markets legal in Ohio?
The legal status page on this site covers that, reporting what Ohio law, the Ohio Casino Control Commission and the courts have said about prediction-market exchanges as of its stated date, without drawing a conclusion the sources do not support. Nothing on Ohio Predictions is legal or financial advice.