Ohio Gas Price Predictions & Odds

How Ohio Gas Price Markets Settle

An Ohio gas contract is a question about one AAA number: the statewide average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in Ohio on a named date, as AAA shows it on its Ohio page at gasprices.aaa.com. Kalshi lists the daily Ohio series under its AAAGAS contract terms. Those terms name AAA as the source agency, read the figure as AAA documents it when the contract expires, ignore any revision AAA makes afterward, and fall back to the last published day if AAA posts nothing for the date in question.

A rung resolves Yes only when AAA's figure is strictly greater than the rung's price, so an average that matches the price exactly resolves No. Because the number is an average across the state's stations, it rarely matches the sign at any particular pump. AAA's Ohio page lists county averages on either side of it, which is why the price in one county can run well above or below the figure a contract settles on.

How to Read the Ohio Gas Price Board

The ladder on this page belongs to the next day's contract. Every rung names a price, and the odds beside it are the market's chance that AAA's Ohio average for that day ends up above the price. Rungs are spaced half a cent apart, so the chance shrinks as you move up the ladder, from rungs priced near certainty at the bottom to long shots at the top.

The market line marks where the ladder passes an even chance, which makes it the market's central estimate. The last settled day sits alongside it and shows AAA's actual figure for the newest date that has resolved. Compare the two: if the market line sits under the last settled figure, traders expect the Ohio average to slip overnight, and if it sits over it they expect a rise. Trading on each day's contract stops at 11:59 p.m. Eastern the night before.

What Moves Ohio Gas Prices

For Ohio, the dated event to know is the tax. Ohio's motor fuel tax on gasoline is thirty-eight and a half cents a gallon under Ohio Revised Code section 5735.05, in force since July 1, 2019. House Bill 519, which Governor Mike DeWine signed on October 1, 2026, cut that rate to one-hundredth of a cent a gallon from 12:01 a.m. on October 4, 2026 through 11:59 p.m. on January 2, 2027, and the Ohio Department of Taxation says retailers must pass the whole saving through at the pump. After January 2, 2027, the standard rate applies again, which makes the end of the holiday a fixed date any Ohio board can price in advance.

Supply is the other half. Ohio belongs to EIA's PADD 2, the Midwest district, which EIA describes as drawing crude oil by pipeline from the Gulf Coast as well as from Canada and North Dakota. EIA counts crude oil as the largest component of the retail price, names pipeline disruptions and refinery outages among the events that push prices up, and notes that prices stay high where surplus gasoline cannot be moved in from another region.

On blends, Ohio is simpler than many states. No Ohio county is on EPA's list of areas that must sell reformulated gasoline, and EPA removed Ohio's own summer-gasoline rule for the Cincinnati and Dayton areas in a final rule published on April 7, 2017. Ohio stations follow the federal summer volatility limit, which runs from June 1 to September 15 at retail, and EIA notes that demand usually climbs in summer.

Ohio Gas Price History

The chart below the board records AAA's settled Ohio average for each day whose contract has resolved. It begins with the contract for September 2, 2026, the first date in Kalshi's daily Ohio series, so the record started before the tax holiday took effect and covers days under both rates. The seven-day and thirty-day windows slide forward one day at a time and always end on the most recent settled day; the full view holds every point since September 2, 2026. Whether exchanges may offer these contracts in Ohio is covered on the legal status page.