Ohio politics prediction markets price the state's 2026 races as contracts: the open governor's seat, the Senate special election and the congressional districts, each settled on the winning party.
Acton's unofficial lead of 364,448 votes settled a board that had the Democratic side at 83% on both venues the night before the vote, which means the one-in-six upset the market left room for never came close.
Ohio Predictions staff ·
No Ohio market on this desk moved a point in the last 24 hours.
| Portrait | Person | Named in | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | Amy ActonNo office on record | Ohio Senate Odds 2026 — settled · Democratic Party settled yes · 1 more · 8 stories | No date on record |
| SB | Sherrod BrownNo office on record | Ohio Senate Odds 2026 — settled · Democratic Party settled yes · 3 more · 8 stories | No date on record |
Two of Ohio's 2026 races are statewide. The Senate special election fills the rest of a term that ends January 3, 2029: Governor Mike DeWine, in office since January 14, 2019, appointed Jon Husted to the seat, and Husted took office on January 21, 2025. The governor's race is for an open seat, with each party's candidates for governor and lieutenant governor elected together on one ticket. The other races are the U.S. House districts, priced one seat at a time on the winning party, with pages up for the 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 13th, 14th and 15th districts. Contracts on control of Congress are national questions and are not listed here. The officeholders and candidates that Ohio's own contracts name each have a place in the people index.
The calendar set the pace. The May 5, 2026 primary settled the major-party nominees; voter registration closed October 5; early in-person and mail voting opened October 6; and Election Day was November 3, 2026. Between those dates the contracts reacted to polls, to shifts in the published race ratings, to fundraising reports, to debates and to anything that changed a nominee. The House seats add a factor of their own: 2026 is the first election on the congressional map the Ohio Redistricting Commission adopted in October 2025, so the 2022 and 2024 House results were cast on different lines. Since the polls closed, the contracts have followed the count and the media calls: the Associated Press called the governor's race for Amy Acton and the Senate special election for Sherrod Brown on election night, and the 10th District for Kristina Knickerbocker on the afternoon of November 5, 2026, with its outstanding ballots and the official canvass still ahead.
A published rating sorts a race into a column; a contract price says how far from even the money sits, and it keeps moving after the raters stop. In Ballotpedia's tracking of October 13, 2026, Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rated both of Ohio's statewide races a Toss-up, which tells a reader the races are close and little more. A price adds a number, and the number can be checked against the result. Two cautions come with it. A contract can carry a candidate's name and still pay on the party, so if a nominee is replaced before Election Day, the replacement inherits the contract. And where two exchanges quote the same line, the figure shown is the cheaper Yes, named with its exchange, not a blend of the two.
A politics contract pays a fixed amount if a named outcome happens, such as the Republican Party winning Ohio's 10th District on November 3, 2026, and nothing if it does not. Because the payout is fixed, the price traders pay reads as the probability they assign, and it changes as polls, filings and news arrive.
The 2026 races for governor and lieutenant governor, for the Senate seat in the special election and for Ohio's fifteen seats in the U.S. House, each priced as a contract on the winning party. Contracts on control of the House or Senate are national questions and are not treated as Ohio markets.
The party. Kalshi's Ohio contracts pay on the party of the person sworn in, or for governor inaugurated, or earlier on a consensus of media projections, and Polymarket names candidates for convenience but resolves on the party's nominee, so a replacement nominee before November 3, 2026 takes over the line.
It was held on November 3, 2026, alongside the general election, for the unexpired term ending January 3, 2029. Democrat Sherrod Brown defeated Republican Jon Husted, who holds the seat by appointment of Governor Mike DeWine, by the Associated Press call that night; the result is unofficial until the Secretary of State certifies it.
The site's legal status page reports what Ohio law, the Ohio Casino Control Commission and the courts have said about the exchanges, as of the date it states, and draws no conclusion beyond that. The Sixth Circuit's September 25, 2026 decision in Kalshi's Ohio case addressed its sports-event contracts; nothing on Ohio Predictions is legal advice.