The Ohio Gas Price Contract Is a Column of Yes-or-No Questions About One AAA Number

The Ohio gas price contract in one paragraph

Each Ohio gas contract is one question with one answer: will AAA's average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in Ohio, on the date the contract names, be strictly greater than the price written on it? A day's board is not one market but a column of them, one per price, each listed and settled on its own. Suppose a rung at $3.10 trades at 70%. That is a claim that the statewide average will finish above $3.10 and nothing else: not a forecast of where the average lands, not a statement about any station, and not a reading of the rungs above or below it. A Yes contract on that rung pays $1.00 if the average does finish above $3.10 and nothing if it does not.

How the Ohio gas price contract works step by step

1. Find the date, then the deadline. The date in a contract's title is the day AAA's figure is read, not the day the contract trades. Kalshi's AAAGAS terms set the last trading time at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on the day before that date, so trading on a day's contract ends before the day it asks about has begun.

2. Read each rung as a threshold. The rule on every rung of the Ohio series says the market resolves Yes if average regular gas prices for Ohio are strictly greater than the rung's price on the date, according to AAA. The rungs are spaced half a cent apart and written to four decimal places, and each is a separate contract with its own price.

3. Hold the figure up against the column. AAA prints its Ohio average to four decimal places, which is a hundredth of a cent. For example, say AAA documents $3.1234 for the named date. Every rung priced below that figure, from $3.1200 down, resolves Yes, and every rung from $3.1250 up resolves No. Several rungs pay on the same morning, each on its own contract.

4. Know which reading counts. The terms make AAA the source agency and define the value that settles the contract as the figure AAA documents on the expiration date at the expiration time, which the terms set at 10:15 a.m., 11 a.m. or 3 p.m. Eastern. The Ohio series names AAA's Ohio page at gasprices.aaa.com as its settlement source.

5. Expect the payout within a day. Settlement comes no later than the day after expiration, unless Kalshi has placed the outcome under review under its rulebook. If AAA has posted no figure for the date by the expiration time, the contract resolves on the last day AAA did publish.

6. Read regular, and read statewide. AAA's Ohio page also prints mid-grade, premium and diesel averages, metro averages for places such as Akron and Canton-Massillon, and county price bands. None of those settle the contract. It reads one line on that page, the statewide average for regular gasoline.

Where Ohio readers stand

Whether an exchange that lists these contracts may serve a person in Ohio is a question for the state's record, not for the rulebook of a gas contract, and this guide draws no conclusion about it. What has been filed, ordered and announced about prediction markets in Ohio, with the date on each part of it, is set out on the legal status page. This guide is not legal advice and not financial advice.

Common misreadings

Only one rung can pay. Every rung below the figure pays. The board is a column of thresholds rather than a row of brackets sharing one payout, so on a morning when AAA's figure sits high on the column, most rungs on it resolve Yes together.

A figure that lands on a rung pays that rung. It does not. The test is strictly greater than, so an average exactly equal to a rung's price resolves that rung No. With AAA's figure carried to four decimal places and the rungs on half-cent marks, a tie needs an exact match to the hundredth of a cent, but the rule is written for it.

The price at a nearby station is the one that counts. A station's sign is one price at one corner. The contract reads AAA's statewide average for regular, which sits above some Ohio counties and below others on any given day.

A correction from AAA reopens a settled contract. The terms say revisions made after expiration are not counted. The figure as AAA documented it at the expiration time is the one that settles.

A rung's percentage is the expected price. Say a contract on one rung trades at 50%. That marks the rung where the market sees an even chance of a finish above it, which is a different thing from a prediction of the figure, and a rung trading at 90% still pays nothing if the average finishes under it.

Related guides and markets

The live Ohio board, its market line and the settled history are on the Ohio gas prices page, and the state's other economic contracts sit on the money hub. Two other guides follow Ohio contracts that settle on a different kind of record: how the Bengals playoff contract settles, on the league's postseason field, and when Ohio election markets settle, on a race call or a certified count.

This guide is not legal advice and not financial advice. It explains how the Ohio gas contract is written and names no side, no rung and no exchange to use.