Amy Acton Prediction Markets & 2026 Ohio Governor Odds

Amy Acton and the Ohio governor market

The state contract is the Ohio governor market page, and it is written on a party rather than a person. Kalshi's Democratic contract pays Yes if a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as governor of Ohio pursuant to the 2026 election, and Kalshi lists an expected settlement of January 14, 2027, with accelerated determination allowed once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Polymarket resolves on the winner of the election once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate, and on certification if they do not; a candidate represents a party by being its nominee.

So Acton is in this market as the Democratic nominee, and the Democratic side was her side from the primary on. Her name is not in either rule. The governor market page carries the closing prices from both venues, each with its own volume, and each venue's own rules govern its contracts.

Candidacy and ballot status

Acton ran for an open seat. CBS News reported on election night that Republican Gov. Mike DeWine was prevented from running again by term limits. Wikidata lists no position held by Acton; it records her as a public health physician and epidemiologist, a member of the Democratic Party, with the Ohio Department of Health and Ohio State University among her employers, and as a candidate in the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.

She and her running mate, David Pepper, were unopposed in the Democratic primary on May 5, 2026 and drew 767,360 votes in the official canvass. The county boards' list for the November 3 ballot, as Lake County published it on October 15, 2026, named three party tickets: Acton and Pepper for the Democrats, Vivek Ramaswamy and Robert A. McColley for the Republicans, and the Libertarian ticket led by Don Kissick, with three write-in tickets beside them.

What has moved the market

October was the month the polling settled on one side. Marist's poll of October 15 to 18, 2026 had Acton seven points ahead among likely voters, and the governor market's move past the forecasters followed that run of leads. Suffolk University's poll of October 21 to 26 had her ahead 48 to 44, narrower than its September reading of 50 to 41, which is the slip the Suffolk poll story covered. Survey 160's final poll, in the field October 27 to November 1, put her eight points ahead, as the last pre-election poll story set out.

Then the vote. By 10:45 p.m. on November 3, 2026 the Associated Press had declared Acton the winner, Signal Ohio reported, and CBS News and NBC News also projected her the winner. In the Secretary of State's unofficial results, read at 9:52 a.m. Eastern on November 5, 2026 with every Election Day precinct reporting, Acton had 2,404,178 votes to Ramaswamy's 2,039,730, a margin of 364,448, or about eight points. The election-night story compares that margin with what the market had priced.

What happens next

The count stays unofficial until the Secretary of State certifies it. The county boards are still canvassing, and on November 5 the Secretary of State listed 98,369 provisional ballots and 3,779 overseas and military ballots outstanding statewide; the official canvass is completed about three weeks after the election. Ohio recounts a statewide race automatically only when the margin is under one-fourth of one percent of the vote, far below the unofficial gap. Kalshi's contract did not wait for the count or the inauguration: it settled on its media-consensus clause at 10:57 p.m. Eastern on November 3, 2026.

The rest of Ohio's ballot is on the elections page, and other Ohioans a contract names are indexed under the people pages. Next review: November 19, 2026.