SportsOhio73 outcomes

Ohio NCAA Tournament Odds 2027

Q: What are the Ohio NCAA Tournament odds for 2027?

As of November 2, 2026, Kalshi had Ohio State at 0.5%, Cincinnati at 0.4%, Xavier at 0.2% and Dayton at 0.1% to win the 2027 national championship. Duke led the 73-program board at 15%.

Q: When does the Ohio NCAA Tournament market resolve?

After the national championship game on April 5, 2027, at Ford Field in Detroit. Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027.

Q: Where is the Ohio NCAA Tournament market traded?

Only on Kalshi, which lists Ohio State, Cincinnati, Xavier and Dayton on its Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event alongside 69 other programs. No second exchange prices it.

Q: Who is the favorite to win the 2027 NCAA Tournament?

Duke, at 15% on Kalshi on November 2, 2026, ahead of Florida at 13%, the top team in the AP preseason poll. Ohio State plays at UConn, the third favorite, on November 13, 2026.

Q: What should I watch before the Ohio NCAA Tournament market resolves?

Ohio State's trips to BYU on November 2 and UConn on November 13, Cincinnati's games at Dayton on November 14 and against Xavier on December 5, 2026, then Dayton's two games with VCU and where each team lands in the 76-team bracket in March 2027.

Xavier<1%+49900KALPlaced 41st of 73 (OH)

Dayton<1%+99900KAL56th of 73 (OH)

Cincinnati0%—67th of 73 (OH)

Ohio St.0%—68th of 73 (OH)

Favorite: Duke 16%+525, 16 points clear of Xavier

Kalshi 18M contractsVolume

73Outcomes

KalshiPriced on 1 book

Apr 13, 2027Resolves by · 155 days

Last Updated: Nov 9, 2026, 9:45 AM ESTReal Time Odds on Prediction Genius

Price historyTop 5 of 73 · Oct 10, 2026–Nov 9, 2026

Duke16%+525
Florida13%+669
UConn12%+733
Illinois9%+1011
Indiana4%+2400

Top 5 over 30 days: Duke 14%+614 on Oct 10, 2026, 16%+525 on Nov 9, 2026.

Outcome field73 outcomes · 1 platform

#	Outcome	Move	Kalshi	Best price
1	DukeKAL 16%+525	—	16%+525	16%+525KAL
2	FloridaKAL 13%+669	—	13%+669	13%+669KAL
3	UConnKAL 12%+733	up 2 points over 24h	12%+733	12%+733KAL
4	IllinoisKAL 9%+1011	—	9%+1011	9%+1011KAL
5	IndianaKAL 4%+2400	up 3 points over 24h	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
6	Michigan St.KAL 4%+2400	—	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
7	VirginiaKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
8	Texas TechKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
9	ArkansasKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
10	St. John'sKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
11	HoustonKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
12	UCLAKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
13	ArizonaKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
14	TexasKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
15	LouisvilleKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
16	MichiganKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
17	KansasKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
18	Miami (FL)KAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
19	USCKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
20	AlabamaKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
21	GonzagaKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
22	PurdueKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
23	LSUKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
24	KentuckyKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
25	BaylorKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
26	North CarolinaKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
27	NebraskaKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
28	TennesseeKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
29	Iowa St.KAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
30	Texas A&MKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
31	VanderbiltKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
32	MissouriKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
33	Florida St.KAL 1%+14186	—	1%+14186	1%+14186KAL
34	BYUKAL 1%+14186	—	1%+14186	1%+14186KAL
35	MarquetteKAL 1%+16567	—	1%+16567	1%+16567KAL
36	ProvidenceKAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
37	GeorgetownKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
38	VillanovaKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
39	OklahomaKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
40	CreightonKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
41	XavierOHKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
42	Ole MissKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
43	Boise St.KAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
44	Saint Mary'sKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
45	Notre DameKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
46	StanfordKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
47	PittsburghKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
48	ClemsonKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
49	Wake ForestKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
50	Seton HallKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
51	San FranciscoKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
52	Virginia TechKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
53	ButlerKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
54	RichmondKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
55	St. BonaventureKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
56	DaytonOHKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
57	Loyola ChicagoKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
58	Colorado St.KAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
59	NevadaKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
60	Mississippi St.KAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
61	OregonKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
62	Boston CollegeKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
63	Auburn	—	—	0%—KAL
64	Syracuse	—	—	0%—KAL
65	SMU	—	—	0%—KAL
66	Iowa	—	—	0%—KAL
67	CincinnatiOH	—	—	0%—KAL
68	Ohio St.OH	—	—	0%—KAL
69	Wisconsin	—	—	0%—KAL
70	Memphis	—	—	0%—KAL
71	VCU	—	—	0%—KAL
72	NC St.	—	—	0%—KAL
73	San Diego St.	—	—	0%—KAL

How it settlesSettled by Kalshi

Kalshi's Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event (KXMARMAD-27) pays Yes on the Ohio St. contract (KXMARMAD-27-OSU) if Ohio State is the 2026-27 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, on the Cincinnati contract (KXMARMAD-27-CIN) if Cincinnati is, on the Xavier contract (KXMARMAD-27-XAV) if Xavier is, and on the Dayton contract (KXMARMAD-27-DAY) if Dayton is; each pays No otherwise. The 2027 NCAA tournament runs from March 16 to April 5, 2027, with the championship game scheduled at Ford Field in Detroit on April 5, 2027, and Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027. Kalshi is the only venue pricing this contract.

Market type

Multi Outcome

Priced on

Kalshi

What moves it

Ohio State went 21-13 and lost 66-64 to TCU in the first round of the NCAA tournament on March 19, 2026; Cincinnati went 18-15 and Xavier 15-18, both done after their conference tournaments
Dayton went 25-12, lost 70-62 to VCU in the Atlantic 10 final on March 15, 2026, and lost 61-55 to Illinois State in the NIT quarterfinals on March 25
Kalshi had Ohio State at 0.5%, Cincinnati at 0.4%, Xavier at 0.2% and Dayton at 0.1% on November 2, 2026; Duke led at 15% and Florida was at 13%
No Ohio program is in the AP preseason top 25 released October 19, 2026; Ohio State received 39 points, the most of the four
Ohio State opens at BYU on November 2 and plays at UConn on November 13; Cincinnati plays at Dayton on November 14 and hosts Xavier on December 5, 2026
The 2027 field expands to 76 teams, with the Opening Round at University of Dayton Arena and in Wichita, Kansas, on March 16 and 17, 2027; the title game is April 5 at Ford Field in Detroit

Analysis · Ohio Predictions staff · Nov 2, 2026

Ohio State, Cincinnati, Xavier and Dayton Open the 2027 Title Race as Long Shots

The Ohio NCAA Tournament odds for 2027 rest on how last season ended for the four Ohio programs on the national title board: Ohio State lost its NCAA tournament opener to TCU by two points, Dayton's season ended in the NIT quarterfinals, and Cincinnati and Xavier were done after their conference tournaments. The market treats all four as programs that have to earn a place in the bracket before they can be priced as contenders, and the preseason polls agree: none of the four is in the AP top 25. Ohio State plays its home games at the Schottenstein Center in Columbus, Ohio, Cincinnati at Fifth Third Arena and Xavier at the Cintas Center, both in Cincinnati, Ohio, and Dayton at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. Kalshi is the only exchange pricing this contract, and the live board above carries every program's price.

What the Ohio NCAA Tournament Price Is Saying

On November 2, 2026, Kalshi had Ohio State at 0.5%, Cincinnati at 0.4%, Xavier at 0.2% and Dayton at 0.1% to win the 2027 national championship. Duke led the 73-program board at 15% and Florida was at 13%, still the only two programs in double figures, while 35 programs were priced above Ohio State and 55 above Dayton. What the price is saying is that no Ohio program is treated as a title contender on the night the season opens: all four sit in the long tail of the board, where a price measures the chance of a run nobody is forecasting rather than a path the market already sees.

The order inside that tail runs against last season's records. Dayton won 25 games in 2025-26, more than any other Ohio program, and is priced last of the four; Xavier won 15 and is priced above it. The market treats league strength as the larger fact, and the four prices line up with the four conferences more closely than with the four records.

The polls released on October 19, 2026 tell the same story from the other side. Ohio State received 39 points in the AP preseason poll and 31 in the coaches poll, the most of any Ohio program and short of the top 25 in both; Cincinnati received 4 points in the coaches poll and none in the AP's, and Xavier and Dayton received none in either. Florida and Duke, first and second in both polls, are the market's top two in the other order.

The conference comparison sharpens the read. Ohio State plays Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan in Big Ten play, and on November 2, 2026 Kalshi had them at 7%, 4% and 2%. Cincinnati's Big 12 includes Texas Tech and Arizona at 5% and Houston and Kansas at 4%, and Xavier's Big East includes UConn at 8% and St. John's at 4%. Dayton's Atlantic 10 is the outlier: VCU, at 0.3%, is the only league rival priced above the Flyers, and Saint Louis, which shared the league's best conference record at 15-3 last season, is not on the board at all. A league the market barely prices gives Dayton fewer chances to change its number before March.

Ohio State's 2025-26 Season Behind the Price

Ohio State finished 2025-26 at 21-13 and 12-8 in the Big Ten, eighth in ESPN's final conference standings. The Buckeyes beat Iowa 72-69 at the United Center in Chicago on March 12, 2026, in the Big Ten Tournament, lost 71-67 to Michigan in the quarterfinals the next day, and lost 66-64 to TCU in the first round of the NCAA tournament in Greenville, South Carolina, on March 19. The record carries close losses that a 21-13 line hides: 67-66 at Pittsburgh on November 28, 2025, 71-70 to North Carolina in Atlanta on December 20 and 72-69 to Nebraska at the Schottenstein Center on January 5, 2026. ESPN lists Jake Diebler as head coach for 2026-27.

Cincinnati's 2025-26 Season Behind the Price

Cincinnati finished 2025-26 at 18-15 and 9-9 in the Big 12, ninth in ESPN's final standings. The Bearcats beat Utah 73-66 in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, on March 10, 2026, then lost 66-65 to UCF the next day, and ESPN lists no postseason game after that. The season had results a tournament team would keep, an 84-68 win at Kansas on February 21 and a 90-68 win over BYU on March 3, and it beat Dayton 74-62 at Fifth Third Arena on November 11, 2025. ESPN lists Jerrod Calhoun as head coach for 2026-27.

Xavier's 2025-26 Season Behind the Price

Xavier finished 2025-26 at 15-18 and 6-14 in the Big East, tenth in ESPN's final conference standings. The Musketeers beat Marquette 89-87 in the first round of the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden on March 11, 2026, then lost 93-68 to UConn in the quarterfinals the next day, and ESPN lists no postseason game after that. The best night for an Ohio reader came on December 5, 2025, a 79-74 win over Cincinnati at the Cintas Center in the Crosstown Shootout. League play was decided at the margins: Xavier lost 66-65 at Marquette, 94-93 at Creighton and 92-89 at home to Villanova, and UConn beat it three times by 23, 32 and 25 points. ESPN lists Richard Pitino as head coach for 2026-27.

Dayton's 2025-26 Season Behind the Price

Dayton finished 2025-26 at 25-12 and 12-6 in the Atlantic 10, fourth in ESPN's final standings. The Flyers beat St. Bonaventure 68-63 and Saint Louis 70-69 at the Atlantic 10 Tournament at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, then lost 70-62 to VCU in the final on March 15, 2026, one win short of the league's automatic bid. In the NIT they won 80-66 at Bradley and 80-61 at UNC Wilmington before losing 61-55 to Illinois State at UD Arena in the quarterfinals on March 25. The nonconference schedule had a 77-71 win at Marquette on November 19, 2025 and a 97-69 win over Florida State on December 16. ESPN lists Anthony Grant as head coach for 2026-27.

The Early Tests on Ohio's 2026-27 Schedules

The seasons open on November 2, 2026, and every Ohio schedule puts its program against teams the market already rates above it. Each is a measure of whether the gap closes:

• November 2, Ohio State at BYU: the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, on opening night, against the 25th team in the AP preseason poll.

• November 13, Ohio State at UConn: PeoplesBank Arena in Hartford, Connecticut, against the board's third favorite.

• November 14, Cincinnati at Dayton: UD Arena, a rematch of Cincinnati's win last November and the first of its two games this season against another Ohio program on the board.

• November 25 and 27, Xavier in Nassau: Texas A&M, then Virginia, the highest-priced team on Xavier's nonconference schedule, at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas.

• December 5, Xavier at Cincinnati: the Crosstown Shootout at Fifth Third Arena, the same day Dayton plays at Florida State, a program the board prices above the Flyers.

• December 19, Ohio State against Kansas: the CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden in New York, against a program the board prices well above the Buckeyes.

• January 16, Xavier at UConn: Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, Connecticut, the first of two meetings with the Big East's highest-priced program.

• January 22 and March 5, Dayton against VCU: the Atlantic 10 rival that beat Dayton in the conference final, first at UD Arena and then in Richmond, Virginia.

The Case Against the Ohio NCAA Tournament Read

The strongest case against the read is that a price under 1% on November 2, 2026 is a price on last season, and last season was closer than the records say. Ohio State's 2025-26 turned on one-possession games, including the two-point tournament loss to TCU, and Xavier lost three Big East games by three points or fewer. A reader who holds this view argues that the market is pricing records rather than the margins inside them.

For Dayton the counterread is the record itself. A 25-win team that reached its conference final and won two NIT road games is priced below three Ohio programs it outwon, and a reader who holds this view argues that the board is pricing the Atlantic 10's reputation rather than the Flyers' results. For Cincinnati it starts in Lawrence, where a team that won by 16 at Kansas showed more than a 9-9 conference record. The other side of each argument is that the board treats a title as six or seven straight wins rather than one good night, and no Ohio program won an NCAA tournament game last March.

The expanded field cuts both ways. The 2027 tournament grows from 68 to 76 teams, with 44 at-large bids instead of 36, so a program near the cut line has more room to get in. Twenty-four teams, the 12 lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the 12 lowest-seeded at-large teams, start in the Opening Round on March 16 and 17, 2027, at University of Dayton Arena and in Wichita, Kansas, and a team that starts there needs seven wins rather than six to take the title.

What Changes the Ohio NCAA Tournament Read

The read is wrong if the Ohio programs beat the teams the board rates above them before conference play settles the bracket, because prices this far down the board assume most of those games go the other way.

• November 2 and 13, Ohio State at BYU and at UConn: two road games against programs the board prices above the Buckeyes, the second of them its third favorite, and the results most likely to move the Ohio State price.

• November 14 and December 5, the in-state games: Cincinnati at Dayton and Xavier at Cincinnati sort the Ohio programs against one another before league play begins.

• November 27, Xavier against Virginia: the strongest nonconference test on Xavier's schedule, in Nassau.

• January 2 to March 2, Cincinnati's Big 12 home stretch: Texas Tech, Kansas, Arizona and Houston decide whether Cincinnati plays its way into the field.

• January 22 and March 5, Dayton against VCU: the two results that say whether Dayton can win the league it finished fourth in last season.

• The seed: where each team lands in the 76-team bracket, and whether any starts in the Opening Round on March 16 or 17, 2027.

• April 5, 2027: the championship game at Ford Field in Detroit, which settles the contract.

When the Ohio NCAA Tournament Market Resolves

The market resolves on the 2026-27 Division I men's college basketball national champion. Kalshi's Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event lists a separate contract for each of the four Ohio programs, and each pays Yes only if that program is the national champion and settles No if any other program wins. The tournament runs from March 16 to April 5, 2027, with the championship game at Ford Field in Detroit, and Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027. One title cannot go to two programs, so at most one of the four Ohio contracts settles Yes.

Ohio State's football season has its own question on the Ohio State football win total market, and the Buckeyes' markets are gathered on the Ohio State team page. Cleveland's professional basketball club is priced on the Cavaliers NBA Finals market. Every Ohio club and program this site follows is on the sports hub, and every contract is listed on the markets page.

Questions readers ask

What are the Ohio NCAA Tournament odds for 2027?

As of November 2, 2026, Kalshi had Ohio State at 0.5%, Cincinnati at 0.4%, Xavier at 0.2% and Dayton at 0.1% to win the 2027 national championship. Duke led the 73-program board at 15%.

When does the Ohio NCAA Tournament market resolve?

After the national championship game on April 5, 2027, at Ford Field in Detroit. Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027.

Where is the Ohio NCAA Tournament market traded?

Only on Kalshi, which lists Ohio State, Cincinnati, Xavier and Dayton on its Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event alongside 69 other programs. No second exchange prices it.

Who is the favorite to win the 2027 NCAA Tournament?

Duke, at 15% on Kalshi on November 2, 2026, ahead of Florida at 13%, the top team in the AP preseason poll. Ohio State plays at UConn, the third favorite, on November 13, 2026.

What should I watch before the Ohio NCAA Tournament market resolves?

Ohio State's trips to BYU on November 2 and UConn on November 13, Cincinnati's games at Dayton on November 14 and against Xavier on December 5, 2026, then Dayton's two games with VCU and where each team lands in the 76-team bracket in March 2027.