Ohio Super Bowl Odds 2026

Half a Game Apart in the Standings, Far Apart on Ohio's Super Bowl Board

The Bengals and Browns Super Bowl odds for 2026 split Ohio's two NFL clubs far more sharply than the standings do. Cincinnati is 5-2 and holds the AFC's sixth seed, Cleveland is 5-3 and sits eighth, half a game behind and one place outside the field, yet the Super Bowl board prices the Bengals in the group just behind the league's top seven and the Browns in the bottom third of the 32-club field, because this market reads scoring margin, quarterback play and last season ahead of eight weeks of results. Super Bowl LXI is scheduled for February 14, 2027 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, and the live board above shows every club's current price.

How the Super Bowl Board Reads Ohio's Two Clubs

The Bengals sit just outside the leading group, and they have moved toward it. On November 2, 2026 Polymarket had Cincinnati at 5% to win Super Bowl LXI, the cheapest Yes on the Bengals, with Kalshi at 6%; on October 20 both venues had them at 4%. Two wins on consecutive Sundays, 35-13 at Baltimore on October 25 and 43-36 over Tennessee on November 1, account for the point. Seven clubs were priced above Cincinnati on November 2 and one, Denver, level with it. The market treats the Bengals as a club with a real but distant claim on the title, one that would have to come through a conference with three clubs priced above it.

The Browns are priced like a club with a losing record. Polymarket had Cleveland at 0.4% on November 2, 2026, below Kalshi's 1%, between Washington at 0.5%, which was 2-4-1, and Philadelphia, Las Vegas and New Orleans at 0.3%. What the price is saying is that a 5-3 record built on close wins and a 139-173 scoring deficit has not persuaded anyone that the 5-12 club of 2025 has become a contender, and a 27-6 loss at Pittsburgh on November 1 gave the market no reason to change its mind.

That gap is the read. Two clubs from the same state, in the same division, half a game apart in the standings, sit at prices more than ten times apart. The difference is the scoreboard: Cincinnati has scored 206 points and allowed 158 in seven games, Cleveland has scored 139 and allowed 173 in eight. Add Joe Burrow's 2,115 passing yards and 20 touchdown passes through seven games, with no injury designation on ESPN's roster of November 2, 2026, against a Browns offense that has scored fewer points than every AFC club with a winning record, and the board's verdict follows.

The Clubs Priced Above the Bengals

The front of the board is led by two clubs and then crowded. On November 2, 2026 Polymarket had San Francisco at 14% and Buffalo at 13%, Kalshi had Kansas City at 9%, both venues had Seattle at 9%, Polymarket had Chicago at 8% and Jacksonville at 7%, and both venues had the Los Angeles Rams at 7%. That means the title is still spread thin at the top: no club's best price reaches one chance in seven.

The order of that group shows how little the board leans on the standings. The Rams, 4-4 on ESPN's table of November 2, 2026, were priced above Cincinnati, while Minnesota, 6-1 and second in the NFC, sat at 4% on both venues, a point below the Bengals. A market that ranks a .500 club above a 6-1 one is pricing rosters and schedules for the months ahead, and that is the same habit that lifts Cincinnati and holds Cleveland down.

Three of the seven clubs above the Bengals are AFC teams: Buffalo, Kansas City and Jacksonville. That matters for an Ohio reader because both of the state's clubs have to win the AFC before they can play for the title. Baltimore, priced above the Bengals in October, fell to 1% on both venues by November 2, 2026, after losing to Cincinnati and dropping to 4-4.

The Path From Ohio to Inglewood

The playoff path is the second half of the price. Seven clubs from each conference qualify, and only the top seed in each conference skips the Wild Card Round. Every other qualifier has to win four games to take the title: the Wild Card Round on January 16 to 18, 2027, the Divisional Round on January 23 or 24, the AFC Championship on January 31 and Super Bowl LXI on February 14. A top seed needs three.

After eight weeks, ESPN's AFC seeding has Buffalo first, then Denver, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Cincinnati and New England, with Cleveland eighth. Pittsburgh leads the AFC North at 6-2, half a game ahead of the Bengals. Because both Ohio clubs play in the AFC North, the two Ohio contracts are alternatives rather than partners on this board: they cannot meet in Inglewood, and at most one can win the AFC. The AFC Championship board prices that intermediate step for both clubs.

By November 2, 2026 this board had traded about 216 million contracts on Kalshi and about $71.2M on Polymarket; the Bengals' contract accounted for about 10.8 million of those contracts and $1.90M of that money, the Browns' for about 2.13 million and $2.51M, so the Ohio prices sit on deep trading even at long odds.

The Case Against the Super Bowl Read

The strongest case against the read is that the board is pricing reputations, and the Ohio split is the same habit seen from the other side. A market that puts a 4-4 Rams club above Cincinnati and a 6-1 Minnesota club below it is not reading results closely, and the Bengals at 5% on Polymarket on November 2, 2026 may owe as much to the quarterback's name as to anything the club has done; Cincinnati has allowed 158 points in seven games and has already lost at home to Jacksonville, one of the AFC clubs priced above it.

The Browns side of the argument is the reverse. Cleveland is half a game out of the field, has beaten Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and still plays Baltimore once and Cincinnati twice; a club that wins enough of those games is in a single-elimination tournament where every seed below the first needs the same four wins. A price below 2-4-1 Washington's gives that no weight.

What Changes the Super Bowl Read

The read would be wrong if Cleveland leads Cincinnati in the standings after their December 6 meeting in Cleveland, because the board's gap between the two clubs rests on the Bengals being the better team, and by then the standings would be saying the opposite. It would be confirmed if the Bengals come out of their November 15 and December 13 games against Pittsburgh and Kansas City with at least one win.

• November 8, 2026: Cincinnati plays Atlanta at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, and Cleveland visits New Orleans.

• November 15, 2026: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati for the division lead, and Houston at Cleveland.

• Burrow's health: the most direct input into the Bengals' price on every postseason board.

• The Ohio meetings, December 6 in Cleveland and January 10, 2027 in Cincinnati: head-to-head games between the two clubs this board separates.

• Kansas City at Cincinnati, December 13: a direct test against a club priced above the Bengals.

• Seeding on January 10, 2027: a bye removes one of the four playoff wins every other qualifier needs.

When the Super Bowl Market Resolves

Super Bowl LXI is scheduled for February 14, 2027 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, and the winner settles the market. Kalshi's contracts pay Yes on the club that wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, with an expected expiration of February 14, 2027 and ESPN, Fox Sports and the Associated Press named as settlement sources. Polymarket resolves according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship, moves a club's contract to No once it can no longer win, for example after a playoff elimination, names official NFL information as its primary source, and resolves to Other if the game is canceled, postponed past March 31, 2027 ET, or no winner is declared in that window.

Related Ohio Markets

The title price is the end of a chain of Ohio boards. The AFC North market prices the division route, the Browns playoff market prices whether Cleveland gets into the tournament at all, and the Cincinnati Bengals win total and the Cleveland Browns win total price the regular seasons that decide the seeding. The sports hub has every Ohio board in one place.