Cleveland Guardians
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers; Cleveland Guardians settled No
Kalshi
Polymarket
Tampa Bay RaysSettled No
Los Angeles AngelsSettled No
Arizona DiamondbacksSettled No
Atlanta BravesSettled No
Pittsburgh PiratesSettled No
San Diego PadresSettled No
San Francisco GiantsSettled No
Detroit TigersSettled No
Houston AstrosSettled No
AthleticsSettled No
Philadelphia PhilliesSettled No
Seattle MarinersSettled No
Texas RangersSettled No
Kansas City RoyalsSettled No
Los Angeles DodgersSettled No
Miami MarlinsSettled No
New York YankeesSettled No
Toronto Blue JaysSettled No
Washington NationalsSettled No
St. Louis CardinalsSettled No
Boston Red SoxSettled No
Chicago CubsSettled No
Minnesota TwinsSettled No
Baltimore OriolesSettled No
Colorado RockiesSettled No
Chicago White SoxSettled No
New York MetsSettled NoThe Brewers Won the World Series in Five, the Way the Market Had Leaned Once Cleveland Went Out
The Ohio World Series odds are settled: the Milwaukee Brewers won the 2026 World Series four games to one over the Tampa Bay Rays, closing it with a 4-1 win in Game 5 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida on October 28, 2026, according to Major League Baseball's official results. No Ohio club reached the final. The Cleveland Guardians lost the American League Championship Series to the Rays four games to two, falling 7-3 in Game 6 on October 19, and the Cincinnati Reds missed the postseason at 75-87. For a reader in Ohio, the title market was decided by two clubs from other states, and it went to the one the market had treated as the favorite from the day the matchup was set.
What the Closing Ohio World Series Price Says
The closing board shows what the price says about a short series between two good teams: the regular season is the best single guide, and it is only a guide. On October 20, 2026, the morning after the Rays won the pennant, Kalshi and Polymarket both had the Brewers at 62% to win the World Series and the Rays at 38%. That was a clear favorite but not a lopsided one, a price that expected Milwaukee to win about three times in five and left real room for Tampa Bay.
The market rests on a gap that was easy to see. The Brewers went 103-59, the best record in baseball, won the National League Central by 14 games and finished with a run differential of plus 214. The Rays went 98-64 with a plus 86 differential, the best record in the American League. Five wins separated the two clubs in the standings and 128 runs separated them in run differential, the figure that says how far apart two teams really were over 162 games, and the Brewers also held home field for Games 1, 2, 6 and 7.
Both venues have settled the board. Kalshi finalized its Pro Baseball Champion event at 11:19 p.m. Eastern on October 28, 2026, the night of Game 5, with Milwaukee's contract paying Yes and Tampa Bay's paying No, and Polymarket resolved its market the same way early on October 29. As of November 2, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket both showed the Brewers' contract at 100% and the Rays' at 0, which means the price is now the settlement, not a forecast.
The board carried heavy trading to the end. As of November 2, 2026 the World Series market had traded about 144.2 million contracts on Kalshi and about $48.2M on Polymarket, with about 15.6 million contracts and about $3.2M on the Brewers and about 13.8 million contracts and about $2.5M on the Rays. The Guardians' contract, settled No after the pennant series, had drawn about 7.4 million contracts on Kalshi and about $1.9M on Polymarket, a measure of how much money followed Cleveland's October before it ended.
How the Ohio World Series Question Ended in the ALCS
The Guardians won the American League Central by one game over the Chicago White Sox, finishing 85-77 with a run differential of plus 11, by far the smallest of the four clubs that reached the pennant round. They came back from two games down to beat the White Sox in the Division Series, winning 9-3 and 9-5 at Rate Field in Chicago on October 7 and 8 and 2-0 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio on October 10.
Against the Rays they led twice. Cleveland won Game 1 7-3 at Tropicana Field on October 12 and Game 3 3-2 at Progressive Field on October 15. Tampa Bay won Game 2 3-1, Game 4 7-3 on October 17 after a rain postponement the day before, Game 5 3-1 at Progressive Field on October 18 and Game 6 7-3 in St. Petersburg on October 19, when Freddy Peralta won and Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero homered. Kalshi settled the Guardians' World Series contract No at 11:32 p.m. Eastern that night, and Polymarket followed early on October 20.
For Cincinnati, the season ended earlier. The Reds finished fifth in the National League Central, 28 games behind Milwaukee, with a run differential of minus 160, and Kalshi settled their World Series contract No on September 18, 2026, 11 days before the postseason began on September 29.
The 2026 World Series, Game by Game
Milwaukee won the first two games at home by one run each. In Game 1 at American Family Field on October 23, Jacob Misiorowski got the win over Nick Martinez and Trevor Megill the save as the Brewers scored twice in the first inning, once more in the seventh and held on 3-2. Game 2 on October 24 opened with Tampa Bay scoring four runs in the first inning, and Milwaukee answered with two in the first and one each in the fourth, sixth and seventh to win 5-4. Liam Hicks homered for Tampa Bay and Sal Frelick for Milwaukee, with Abner Uribe getting the win and Aaron Ashby the save.
The series moved to Tropicana Field with the Rays needing two wins in three home games to send it back to Milwaukee. Game 3 on October 26 was the only lopsided one: the Brewers scored twice in the third and eight times in the fifth to win 10-1, with Robert Gasser beating Peralta. Tampa Bay saved the series for one night in Game 4 on October 27, winning 4-3 in 12 innings. The Brewers, who got home runs from Cooper Pratt and David Hamilton, took a 3-2 lead in the top of the 12th, and the Rays scored twice in the bottom of the inning to win it, with Ian Seymour getting the win and Shane Drohan taking the loss.
Game 5 on October 28 went back to the Game 1 winner. Misiorowski beat Drew Rasmussen for the second time in the series, the Brewers scored once in the second, once in the fifth and twice in the sixth, and Tampa Bay's only run came in the ninth, too late to matter. Milwaukee won 4-1 and the title in five.
The Case Against the Ohio World Series Read
The strongest case against reading the title as the regular season winning is that the margins were thinner than four games to one sounds. Three of the five games were decided by one run, Game 4 needed 12 innings, and Tampa Bay led Game 2 by four runs after the first inning in Milwaukee. A reader who holds this view points out that a couple of swings in those close games would have sent the series back to American Family Field level, and that the Rays had trailed Cleveland twice in the pennant series and still won it, so this was a club that had already come from behind in a short series.
There is a second strand, and it cuts the other way. Milwaukee had a week without a game between its sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers on October 15 and Game 1, while the Rays arrived having played on October 17, 18 and 19. Rest helps a rotation line up and can cost a lineup its timing, and neither effect is measured by a 103-win season, so the result could reflect the calendar as much as the standings.
The counterpoint is that the 38% both venues showed for the Rays on October 20, 2026 already allowed for all of this. It was the price of a real underdog, not a long shot, and the close games are exactly the room that price left. The club with the better season, the better run differential and home field won, which is what the read said was more likely, not certain.
What Changes the Ohio World Series Read
This market cannot move again, because both venues have settled it. What changes the read underneath it, that the club with the clearly better regular season is the one to favor in October, is the next season that tests it, and the next one in which an Ohio club has a stake. Major League Baseball has already published the 2027 calendar:
• Spring training, February 19, 2027: the first date Major League Baseball lists for the 2027 season, when the Guardians and the Reds begin building the rosters the next title price will read.
• Opening Day, March 25, 2027: the regular season starts, and with it the records and run differentials that a 2027 World Series price leans on.
• Postseason, September 27 to October 31, 2027: the window for the next title, after a regular season scheduled to end on September 26, 2027.
When the Ohio World Series Market Resolved
The market resolved when the Brewers won their fourth game of the World Series, Game 5 at Tropicana Field on October 28, 2026, so no Game 6 or Game 7 was played in Milwaukee. Kalshi's Pro Baseball Champion 2026 event paid Yes on the winning club's contract and finalized at 11:19 p.m. Eastern that night, ahead of the November 1, 2026 expected expiration it had listed. Polymarket resolved each club's contract to the World Series winner, settled the Brewers Yes and the Rays No early on October 29, and named official Major League Baseball information as its primary source.
Related Ohio Markets Beyond the World Series
Cleveland's pennant series has its own page, the Guardians ALCS market, which recounts how the Rays won it in six games. The two clubs' own pages are the Guardians team page and the Reds team page. With baseball over for both Ohio clubs, the state's open title questions are in football and basketball, from the Ohio Super Bowl market to the Cavaliers' NBA Finals market, gathered on the sports hub, and every contract this site follows is listed on the markets page.
